Prabhu RamNVIDIA delivered Q2 FY2026 revenue of $46.7Bn, up 6% sequentially and 56% YoY. Blackwell-driven Data Center revenue rose 17% sequentially, while Q3 guidance points to ~$54Bn.
Why this stands out
Behind the strong numbers lies uncertainty. No H20 shipments reached China in Q2, despite select licenses being granted. Instead, NVIDIA benefited from a $180Mn release of reserved inventory and ~$650Mn in unrestricted H20 sales to a non-China customer. For Q3, the company has excluded China H20 shipments altogether, though management pointed to a potential $2–5Bn upside if approvals materialize.
What’s powering growth
Hyperscaler AI spend continues to fuel momentum, with NVIDIA projecting $3–4T in AI infrastructure investment by 2030. Gross margin guidance at 73.5% reflects resilience, even without China H20 revenue. Growth vectors are widening, from robotics—Jetson AGX Thor adoption is accelerating—to automotive, where revenue climbed 69% YoY.
What to watch
Geopolitics continues to loom large. China represents a $50Bn AI compute opportunity in 2025, expected to grow ~50% annually. It is also home to half of the world’s AI researchers and many of the leading open-source models. The question is not NVIDIA’s technology pipeline—Rubin chips are already in fab—but how U.S.–China dynamics shape the addressable market ahead.
